Yes, the guess could be based upon experience however experience has a tendency to be blurred by things such as (dare I say it) ego and failing or preferred memory.
To be informed means you have collected the facts and analysed them to get the best course of action. Facts can take the form of records that are collected as raw data, reports, or images. Always assess the quality and source of the data to ensure it has not been skewed to achieve a desired outcome.
In recent years, we've seen the dumbing down of data analysis through mediums such as mobile phone apps, dashboards and single pane of glass technology. Busy business owners have moved to the cloud in their droves. The cloud offers incredible business benefits that include flexibility, security and integration.
If the integration is not done well though, the information provided can only give part of the story. Be wary of multiple integrations and also make sure you have read the terms and conditions of the solution providers. Ensure your data is not being manipulated incorrectly or used by a third party. Data ownership is important. Your data is valuable.
Keeping good business records is paramount. Don't be afraid to review the raw data for anomalies. Critically assess data that shows extreme highs or lows to understand why. When analysing your business data remove the emotion that surrounds your "baby" by sticking to the hard cold facts.
If you review regularly and I don't mean 'analysis paralysis', you will be better informed to make better, more timely decisions for your small to medium business. Avoid the business slow death and surprises that ego and emotion can bring to your decision making by sticking to the facts. The facts are in the data.